The Florida Division of Elections has released their latest tallies of voter registration by congressional district (as of 7/28), and Democrats are posting some big gains since 2006 in targeted races this fall.
Let’s take a look at the numbers in the chart below. In the 2006 column, we have the GOP’s voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the most recent spread, followed by the net change. In the last column, we’ve ranked the districts according to the percentage change in the GOP-Dem spread. Take a peek:
| District | 2006 | 2008 | Change | %age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-08 | 14,388 | 2,113 | 12,275 | 85% |
| FL-25 | 21,818 | 7,857 | 13,961 | 64% |
| FL-18 | 23,202 | 8,456 | 14,746 | 64% |
| FL-21 | 28,146 | 14,999 | 13,147 | 47% |
| FL-16 | 31,228 | 21,201 | 10,027 | 32% |
| FL-15 | 31,509 | 22,153 | 9,356 | 30% |
| FL-24 | 32,310 | 23,263 | 9,047 | 28% |
| FL-09 | 33,956 | 28,614 | 5,342 | 16% |
| FL-13 | 62,230 | 55,542 | 6,688 | 11% |
The ground is shifting quickly in the Orlando-based 8th District, where GOP Rep. Ric Keller could be facing a real battle to hang onto his seat. The next biggest shift is in South Florida, where Democrats have posted huge registration gains in recent months, and where Democrats Annette Taddeo, Raul Martinez, and Joe Garcia are giving Republican Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers the fight of their lives.
The biggest black eye for Florida Democrats continues to be the open seat of FL-15, where despite having cut into the GOP’s voter registration advantage by over 9000 votes, Democrats were not able to find a top-tier candidate for the race. Democrats held retiring Rep. Dave Weldon to a 56-44 margin with an unknown candidate in 2006, but it appears that our candidate this year won’t be much stronger: both Democrats in the race have raised under $40K each.
Still, there’s a lot of good news here, and we should see some exciting races in Florida this fall.
Dave Weldon is the Congressman for FL-15. Curt Weldon was the old rep in PA-07 whom we beat in 2006. I get the two confised sometimes too.
I’m very familiar with the 8th. That district is trending our way VERY fast. epubs are just hoping Keller can hold on until 2012 so they can redraw the district more favorable to them. Thankfully I feel confident we can win it this year with Stuart, who came close in 2006.
How does this affect the state legislature races? Cause we need control of something for redistricting or else we’ll lose everything we gain this year.
FL-18, FL-25, and FL-21 see a drastic change in just two years…very worrisome for the Repubs not only in this election cycle, but in 2010 and 2012 as the old guard anti-Castro Cubans start to lose the inevitable fight with time…
I also noticed a big shift in our favr in FL-10. That may not mean anything this year, but it will when Young retires.
The Florida department of elections even has a breakdown of current registration by precinct and party.
My precinct is Volusia County #705, a suburban Daytona Beach precinct:
488 Democrats
487 Republicans
374 Others
It’s all me, I’m the difference maker!
Overall change in party registration for the state between 2006 and 2008:
Dems +170,167
Reps -11,594
Yep, republicans have actually had a DECLINE in registration despite Florida’s huge growth rate.
Party registration by %:
2006:
Dems – 40.4%
Reps – 37.7%
2008:
Dems – 41.3% (+0.9%)
Reps – 37.0% (-0.7%)
Increase/Decrease in voter registration by race:
Whites -23,277
Blacks 68,550
Hispanic 128,626
Indian 2,685
Asian 15,001
Not quite as dramatic of a shift as Texas but still quite massive.
While growth is soaring in most of Florida, it’s ranging from stagnant to declining in north Florida (the Panhandle). That region is pretty much a conservative cesspool and an extention of the old south. That should shift a good deal more power to south and central Florida come redistricting and complicate republican gerrymander plans.
Though it could theoretically also cost us our one north Florida Democrat in the House Allan Boyd (FL-02) his seat, I’m not sure that’s a big loss. He’s probably not far off from retirement anyway.